Is a 100% electrified Latvia realistic?

Will there ever come a time in Latvia when we can say, “We are fully electrified!”? We will most likely not see full electrification in Latvia, but we should strive for it in sectors where it makes economic sense, notes Mārtiņš Vancāns, head of the energy company "Enefit" in Latvia. Industry experts will discuss this issue in greater detail during the panel discussion “100% Electrified Latvia in 2050 – Utopia or Reality?”, which will take place as part of the major executive conference “EBIT.”

“100% electrification, in the literal sense, is not entirely realistic or necessary. However, maximum electrification where it is economically, technologically, and socially justified is the direction we should be moving toward,” believes Mārtiņš Vancāns. Electrification is not just a climate issue, but primarily a matter of the economy, competitiveness, and energy security.

Latvia still imports large volumes of fuel and natural gas, the prices of which we cannot influence. “In this regard, we are more like passengers. Therefore, it makes sense to make greater use of the energy we can generate right here in the Baltics using water, wind, and solar power,” notes the head of “Enefit.” This would mean less dependence on imports, more stable costs, and greater resilience against global price shocks.

Electrification would practically mean the gradual introduction of electric transport, wider use of heat pumps for heating, and electrified processes in industry. At the same time, the need for local electricity generation, storage solutions, and more powerful grids would increase.

In the long term, Latvia’s electricity consumption could rise to 15–20 TWh per year—roughly two to three times more than today, estimates Mārtiņš Vancāns. This increase would be driven primarily by the electrification of transportation and heating, as well as new electricity-intensive sectors such as data centers, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and hydrogen technologies.

Slowest progress – in transportation and heat supply

Electrification is proceeding most slowly in sectors that require very high temperatures—metallurgy, cement, and the chemical industry. However, challenges also exist in the transportation sector, particularly regarding private vehicle fleets and heavy-duty transport.

“Three main factors are slowing down the transition—initial costs, still-underdeveloped infrastructure, and most importantly, the slow replacement of the vehicle fleet,” explains Mārtiņš Vancāns.

In Latvia, cars are used for an average of 10–15 years; our vehicle fleet is one of the oldest in Europe. At the same time, the market is evolving—by 2025, the number of electric vehicles in Latvia had risen to as many as 14,000, while the amount of electricity consumed at public charging networks reached nearly 12 GWh.

Changes in the heating sector are also occurring slowly and unevenly. Heat pumps are becoming more popular in households, yet the majority of heat supply still relies on existing systems—in apartment buildings and centralized heating infrastructure, where changes require significant investment.

In contrast, progress in electricity generation in the Baltics is significantly faster. The share of solar energy is growing particularly rapidly. In Latvia, solar energy production increased by 70% in 2025, reaching 678 GWh, or 11.7% of total generation. “Local generation covered about 80% of consumption, which means the system is still a net importer,” notes the head of “Enefit.”

The main obstacle - not technology, but affordability

According to Mārtiņš Vancāns, the technologies for electrification are already available. The biggest challenges are economic accessibility, infrastructure, and political ambition. By importing fossil fuels, funds are constantly flowing out of the local economy.

For businesses, electrification is often already financially beneficial—lower operating costs, the ability to predict electricity prices, and reduced CO2 risks. However, for households, an electric car or a heat pump is often a financially unaffordable purchase.

Featured quote: “That is why resistance to electrification is often not ideological. It is practical—concerns that the costs of the transition will be imposed on people who cannot afford them.” – Mārtiņš Vancāns, CEO of “Enefit.”

At the same time, electrification also means significant changes to the energy system—greater evening loads for charging cars, increased consumption in winter, and greater fluctuations due to renewable resources. This will require investments in grids, energy storage, and flexibility solutions.

Likewise, investments in local energy must become a national priority, believes Mārtiņš Vancāns. Decisions must be made with a primary focus on future benefits—electrification must be understandable to people: how it will reduce bills, what the benefits will be, and how the state will assist in the process.

Latvia still lags significantly behind the Nordic countries

Latvia’s electricity consumption per capita remains below the European average. In 2025, it was approximately 3.5–4 MWh per person per year in Latvia, while the European average reached 5–6 MWh. In the Nordic countries and also in the Baltics, it is even significantly higher. “Latvia’s economy as a whole is less electrified,” emphasizes Mārtiņš Vancāns. At the same time, the Baltic states stand out positively with a high share of renewable energy resources and hydropower as a stable foundation.

2050 – an achievable but not absolute goal

What about full electrification by 2050? “If by ‘full electrification’ we mean literally 100% across all sectors, then no—that is not necessary. Aviation, shipping, some heavy transport, and certain industrial processes will also require other solutions in the long term—biomethane, hydrogen, or synthetic fuels,” says Mārtiņš Vancāns.

However, maximum electrification is necessary where it is economically justified. “Continuing to rely on imported fossil resources means subjecting the economy to price fluctuations, CO2 costs, and geopolitics,” notes the head of “Enefit.”

In the coming years, Latvia must make a national decision on how ambitious we want to be in pursuing electrification. This would mean not only investments in electricity generation but also in grid development, building renovation, transportation, and energy storage solutions. “Local electricity generation must be developed in parallel. If consumption rises but production does not, we will simply replace one form of import dependency with another,” emphasizes Mārtiņš Vancāns. Latvia needs more modern wind, solar, and hydro power capacity, and must also work on energy storage and flexibility solutions.